Journal #13 – Exit Visa (get me out of this place)

Where things stand in my field work: done. I’ve developed a new formula for determining hurricane energy, which was my main goal of what I set out to do. The only possible thing I could do left for my field work would to be analyzing some test cases of storms – plugging in data and getting out a value. Articulating an original theory: done. As previously stated, my original formula for estimated the kinetic wind energy contained within a hurricane is a combination of prior knowledge gained in this area as well as contact with meteorologists.

Five key findings (in chronological order):
1) Yes, there is a general consensus among meteorologists that a new index for hurricane energy is needed, outside of Safir-Simpson or ACE

2) Because there was a general consensus for a new scale is needed, storm size was seen as an important factor to include in this new index (which fits into my research in the prior semester)

3) Taking storm size into account, I would have to figure out a way to find the energy of the wind across all points of the storm system; to do this, I would have to assume the hurricane is a perfect circle (rarely true) and that at a certain radius away from the center of the storm, the wind is the same speed (also rarely true).

4) How to find the total kinetic energy of a tropical cyclone, assuming linearly decreasing wind speed (the development of a formula).

5) Meteorology and forecasting is not perfect and will most likely never be perfect – we have to make assumptions and do the best we can to understand the natural world.

Theory: Because there is a need for a new hurricane energy index, I developed one taking into account storm size and wind speed at certain radii outside of the center, finding the total wind kinetic energy of a tropical cyclone.

Conclusion: I have finished all I have to do – maybe do a singular case study for my portfolio or presentation, but all of the important work is done. I’m very proud of my research and development.