Sunday, May 2, 2010
Journal #11 – Formula, part 2
Why is this formula an improvement over ACE and IKE? I believe that it gives a more accurate representation of overall hurricane intensity versus ACE. ACE is simply a measurement of the square of the maximum wind speed of a hurricane, no matter how large or how small a storm system is. It does not give an accurate reading of the overall energy of the storm – a storm with maximum winds of 100kts and a 34kt radius of 200 miles still has the same ACE as a storm with maximum winds of 100kts and a 34kt radius of 60 miles. It’s simply more accurate than ACE is when determining energy for a storm during its lifetime, or during a hurricane season. Now, while IKE is a more accurate measure of storm intensity (see http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Files/IntegratedEnergyPowell2.pdf for more information on IKE), it is significantly more difficult to calculate. My formula only requires four data points – 34kt wind radius, 50kt wind radius, 64kt wind radius, and maximum velocity, while IKE requires significantly more data points and would be significantly more difficult to calculate. My formula provides both an accurate representation of overall hurricane energy by taking into account storm size, yet allows for a method that is still simple enough to be easily usable. From now on, I wish to refer to my formula as RACE – revised accumulated cyclone energy. I believe that RACE deals with overall hurricane energy in a way that is both accurate and simple, making it an upgrade of the AC E formula.
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