Professionals, Mentor, and Documentation

I chose a number of field professionals to interact with – approximately twenty – from professors at universities involved with hurricane research as well as from hurricane researchers at the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and forecasters working for the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Since twenty is a lot of people to give even brief descriptions about, here is a little bit about each of the professional who responded to me.

Professor Evans, a professor of tropical Penn State University, who teaches and researches tropical meteorology

Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Mark Bourassa, professor of meteorology at Florida State University

Phil Klotzbach, a professor of meteorology at Colorado State University, co-head of a team that makes the second most famous yearly hurricane forecast

Howie Friedman, the deputy director of the HRD

Mark Powell, researcher of tropical meteorology at the HRD

Sim D. Aberson, a researcher of tropical meteorology at the HRD

Sylvie Lorsolo, a researcher of tropical meteorology at the HRD

James Franklin, the current branch chief of NHC

Stacy Stewart, senior hurricane specialist at the NHC.

I chose all of these people for some hopefully obvious reasons – they are all involved in some form of meteorology, either through forecasting or research. They are either professors at major universities, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, or paid researchers at the Hurricane Research Division in Miami, FL.

For documentation, I kept a journal of my thoughts and ideas, as I thought this was the best method of recording not only all of my thoughts, but an evolution of my ideas as I gained more knowledge and insight throughout the year. Looking back, I’m able to see where I went wrong (and right), so when I do other research projects later in life, I will have a much better idea of how to formulate my initial plans and ideas.

Finally, I chose my mentor, Jason Dunion, because of his connection to the Hurricane Research Division as well as his willingness and eagerness to help me along with this project. Without him, I doubt what I accomplished would have been possible.

First Semester Bibliography

American Meteorological Society . (n.d.). AMS Glossary . Retrieved January 1, 2010, from http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=warm-low1

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology . (n.d.). BoM - Tropical Cyclone Frequently Asked Questions . Retrieved January 1, 2010, from http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/faq/faq_def_6.shtml

Barber, B. (2009). Sandbox for Mapping, Viewing, and Analyzing Atlantic Hurricane Data . Retrieved October 14, 2009, from http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php

Booth, M. A., T. Lambert, J. Blackerby, and R. L. Elsberry, 2006: Accuracy of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the North Pacific and Atlantic. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA. [available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/108805.pdf]

Bosart, L. F., Velden, C. S., Bracken, W. E., Molinari, J., & Black, P. G. (2000). Environmental Influences on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995). Monthly Weather Review , 322-352.

Center, N.H. (2005, January 5). Tropical Cyclone Report – Hurricane Charley. Retrieved January 1, 2010, from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL032004_Charley.pdf

Center, N. H. (2009, January 22). Tropical Cyclone Report - Hurricane Gustav. Retrieved January 1, 2010, from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL072008_Gustav.pdf

DeMaria, M. (2004, January 29). Description of the Extended Best Track File. Retrieved January 1, 2010, from ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demaria/ebtrk/readme16.txt

DeMaria, M., J.A Knaff, and C. Sampson, 2007: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 97, 19-28.

DeMaria, M., & Kaplan, J. (1994). Sea Surface Temperature and the Maximum Intensity of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones . Journal of Climate , 1324-1334

Elsberry, R. T.D.B Lambert, and M. A. Boothe, 2007: Accuracy of Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity forecast guidance, Wea. Forecasting, 22, 747-762.

Emanuel, K. A. (1999). Thermodynamic Control of Hurricane Intensity. Nature , 665-669.

Erb, M.P. (2006). A Case Study of Hurricane Katrina: Rapid Intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. Preprints,20th National Conference on Undergraduate Research, Asheville NC.

Frank, W. M., and E. A. Ritchie, 2001: Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2249-2269.

Gibbs, W. (1955). 200mb Divergence Associated with Rapid and Intense Cyclogenesis. Central Meteorological Bureau, Melborne , 1-18.

Jarvinen, B.R., C.J. Neumann, and M.A.S. Davis, 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS. NHC 22, Miami, FL, 21 pp. [Available from National Technical Information Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22151.]

Kaplan, J. (Performer). (2008). A revised rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins. Orlando, FL, USA.
http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/wrfredirect.cgi?id=9472

Kaplan, J., & DeMaria, M. (2003). Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin. Weather and Forecasting , 1093–1108.

Kaplan, J., & DeMaria, M. (2006). Estimating the Likelihood of Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic and E. Pacific Basins using SHIPS Model Data. AMS Conference , 1-4.

Kossin, J. and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Mesovortices, polygonal flow patterns, and rapid pressure falls in hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1079-1090.

Landsea, C. (n.d.). HRD: FAQs. Retrieved January 1, 2010, from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html

Merrill, R. T. (1988). Enviromental Influences on Hurricane Intensification. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 1678-1687.

Molinari, and, D. Vallaro, 1990: External influences on hurricane intensity. Part II:
Vertical structure and response of the hurricane vortex. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1902-1918.

National Hurricane Center . (2009 ). NHC Archives of Hurricane Seasons . Retrieved October 14, 2009, from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

National Hurricane Center. (2009, January 1 ). Extended Best Track File . Retrieved January 1, 2010, from ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demaria/ebtrk/ebtrk_atlc.txt

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (n.d.). 48 Hour Track Errors - "Early" Guidance . Retrieved January 1, 2010, from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/Early_model_ATL_trk_error_trend.gif

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2008 ). Easy to Read HURDAT 2008 . Retrieved October 15, 2009, from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyread-2008.html

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . (2009). Daily Climate Composits. Retrieved October 12, 2009, from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

Schade, L. R., & Emanuel, K. A. (1999). The Ocean’s Effect on the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , 642-651.

Scotti, R. A. (2003). Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938. Little, Brown.

University of Illinois . (n.d.). History of GOES . Retrieved January 15, 2010, from GOES-1 through GOES-7: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gl%29/guides/rs/sat/goes/oldg.rxml

Culminating Theory

My culminating theory for this semester is that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index can and should be updated to include storm size as a measure. For this, I created a revised index, aptly named RACE (Revised Accumulated Cyclone Energy - inventive, no?). My evidence is within the following formula described further on this journal entry - the integral of (10^-4)*2pi*r*[(velocity of outer wind radius) x (outer radius – r)/(outer radius – inner radius) x (velocity of inner wind radius – velocity of outer wind radius)]^2 from outer radius to inner radius.

Why did I pick a formula to represent the culmination of my field work? Because a formula is incredibly short and sweet, but able to say so much. Also, when choosing to revise an index that is based on a certain formula, I would have to change the original formula to a new formula. Any other method of representing a revised ACE index would be complex or unwieldy. A formula is the perfect way of showing a culmination of my field work, by revealing the changes I believe need to occur in the ACE index.

Second Semester Bibliography

A list of new (or heavily used) sources from the second semester

Emanuel, K. A. (1989). The Finite Amplitude Nature of Tropical Cyclogenesis. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 3431-3456.

Emanuel, K. A. (2005). Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years. Nature, 686-688.

Evans, personal communication, April 7, 2010

H. Friedman, personal communication, April 14, 2010

J. Franklin, personal communication, April 7, 2010

K. Emanuel, personal communication, April 5, 2010

M. Bourassa, personal communication, April 6, 2010

M. Powell, personal communication, April 12, 2010

P. Klotzbach, personal communication, April 6, 2010

Powell, Mark D., Reinhold, Timothy A. (2007). Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy. Bulletin of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1-14.

S. D. Aberson, personal communication, April 7, 2010

S. Lorsolo, personal communication, April 7, 2010

S. Stewart, personal communication, April 7, 2010

Semester 1 - Guiding Questions

Main:
How do certain factors affect the ability for tropical systems to rapidly intensify, and does storm size, determined by the radius of hurricane and tropical storm force winds, have an effect on the potential tropical systems to rapidly intensify?


Secondary:
How do Hurricanes strengthen/function?

Why is hurricane intensity forecasting so difficult?

What are the atmospheric factors that influence hurricane intensity?

What are the oceanic factors that influence hurricane intensity?

What are the hurricane features that influence hurricane intensity?

Does storm size influence hurricane intensity?

Journal #15 - The Final Countdown: A Reflection

Huzzah! The process, the semester, all my work has been completed and is over. It’s a feeling of both relief and accomplishment, after an entire year of research, I feel like I’ve both thoroughly investigated a topic (hurricane intensity forecasting) and I have added something to the field. Reflecting back on this process, would I do anything differently? Perhaps I would tell prior me to do a more constant, steady stream of work as opposed to working in bursts over a semester. Is there anything I wish I had done more of? I wish I had contacted more experts in my first semester – I feel like just talking to people in the field would have been helpful in formulating my ideas. Yes, I had a great mentor, but I feel like talking to experts later in the year gave me a broad view of my subject. I really appreciate a lot of the comments I received on my paper from meteorologists – they were all incredibly supportive of my interest in meteorology. I also feel that this entire year gave me a year to really pursue my own interests, and do them independently. The course was rigorous because it was forced to be – I had to do all my own research, find all my articles, on my own time. Making my own schedule was a real independent experience for me. I feel I gained a lot of personal responsibility from this, completely outside of my new knowledge of hurricanes. What a great year.

Journal #14 - Hello? Is there anybody out there?

Here’s one of the biggest drawbacks about meteorology – there simply aren’t a lot of meteorologists. Only a few hundred students graduate with meteorology degrees each year, and even then, not all of these graduates go on to actually go into meteorology. Not to mention that the meteorologists that do work in weather forecasting tend to live in and around cities and universities (to either reach the greatest number or people or do research). Unfortunately, here in southwest Connecticut, we lack large cities (500,000+) and universities that study and do research in the atmospheric sciences and meteorology. This made for some great difficulties in finding a local expert to sit on my panel and evaluate my presentation. No school parents had any real involvement in meteorology, and the alumni office seemed to be lost to find anyone who was in meteorology. Even when I asked the science teachers, their contacts had no desire to participate on the panel – they were either too busy or didn’t feel like wasting their time. There are no meteorology universities near our area – the closest are Cornell (4 hours), MIT (3 hours), or Penn State (5 hours), and I doubt a researcher would be willing to drive all the way to see my small presentation. Most broadcast meteorologists are working or live in New York City – and are most likely too busy to participate on a panel. And the closest office for the National Weather Service is located in Upton, New York – a significant distance away, and most of the people working for the NWS would be working when my presentation is scheduled to be. Where does this leave me? Hopefully I’ll get lucky. Hopefully one person will be able to spend some time for my presentation.